Xiaoyang Ye

Hi there, my name is Xiaoyang Ye (叶晓阳), pronounced "Hsiao-young Yay!"

I am an economist at Amazon's Stores Economics and Science (SEAS) central science team, building the foundational economic models for amazon.com using causal ML and behavioral economics.

I previously worked at PXT Central Science and led the science behind Amazon's major people engagement programs.

My academic research (not affiliated with Amazon) focuses on optimizing human decisions from school to the workforce.

I was a postdoc with Susanna Loeb at Brown and with Adam Kapor, Chris Neilson, and Seth Zimmerman at Princeton.

I received my Ph.D. under the advising of Steve DesJardins, Sue Dynarski, and Brian Jacob from the University of Michigan.

Why do I want to improve human capital accumulation for the poor? One reason: "25 dangerous roads to school in the world."

Optimize human decisions from school to workforce

Working papers

Publications

Publications in Chinese

Working papers

Parents' earnings and the returns to universal pre-Kindergarten, with John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson, Seth Zimmerman, NBER Working Paper 33038, 2024 [pdf]
The STEM major gender gap: Evidence from coordinated college application platforms across five continents, with Isaac Ahimbisibwe, Adam Altjmed, Georgy Artemov, Andres Barrios-Fernandez, Aspasia Bizopoulou, Martti Kaila, Jin-Tan Liu, Rigissa Megalokonomou, Jose Montalban, Christopher Neilson Jintao Sun, Sebastian Otero, 2024 [pdf]
China "World Class University" label and student's admission outcomes, with Runjiu Liu (JMP), 2024 [pdf]
The impact of online learning on human capital investment and attainment: Evidence from a large community college system, with Di Xu, Daniel Firoozi, 2024
The option value of late specialization: Evidence from the meta-major reform in China's college education, with Le Kang, Di Wang, Xu Wei, Yi Zhou, 2024 [pdf]
Personalized advising for college match: Experimental evidence on the use of human expertise and machine learning to improve college choice, 2022 [pdf]
Cognitive distortions in complex decisions: Evidence from centralized college admission, with Ao Wang, Shaoda Wang, 2022 [pdf]
Intergenerational mobility effects of regional education and migration policy in China, with Jonas Jin, Alan Yang, 2022 [pdf]
New college campus and local economic growth, with Dongyang Chen, Wei Ha, 2022
The road not taken: Unequal pathways through high school mathematics coursetaking, with Susanna Loeb, 2022
How college choices disadvantage disadvantaged students under centralized college admissions systems? with Prashant Loyalka, Binzhen Wu, 2020
Motivate future doctors: Evidence from a large-scale online experiment in China, with Hongbin Wu, Hang Yu et al., under review [pdf]
Using text-messages to overcome parenting barriers in under-resourced communities: Evidence from a field experiment in rural China, with Yue Ma, Susanna Loeb et al., under review
Experimental evidence on the effects of systematic phonics, with Xinjie Zhang, under review
Information for vision: Expeirmental Evidence on nudging low-income students to wear eyeglasses, with Jiusheng Zhu, Xinjie Zhang, Yu Zhao, under review
Information nudge in U.S. health education, with Muxin Zhai, Li Feng, under review
Improving access to high-quality teachers in underdeveloped areas: Evidence from Free Teacher Education in China, with Muxin Zhai, Li Feng, under review
Positive and negative information shock in major choice, with Qiuxiang Wu, Jiawen Ke, under review
College-major choice to college-then-major choice: The heterogeneous impacts of late specification reforms on college student composition, with Xin Li et al., EdWorkingPaper 22-695, revise & resubmit [pdf]
The demand for data analytical skills by gender: Evidence from a field experiment, with Xiangrui Zheng, Menghan Sheng, Tong Wang, revise & resubmit

Publications

Improving college choice in centralized admissions: Experimental evidence on the importance of precise predictions, Education Finance and Policy, 2024 [link] [pdf]
Migrant children's take‐up of social health insurance: Experimental evidence from China, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, with Menghan Shen, Zhiwei Tang, Xiaoxia Liang, 2024 [link] [pdf]
Do teachers colleges prepare more effective teachers? Evidence from a top school district in China, China Economic Review, with Qi Zheng, Xin Xie, Yi Wei, 2024 [link] [pdf]
Recruiting high-quality teachers with service scholarships: Descriptive evidence from China's Free Teacher Education Scholarship, ECNU Review of Education, with Yan Shi, Qi Zheng, Xinliang Zhang, Xin Xie, 2024 [pdf]
How does developmental advising impact college students? Studies in Higher Education, with Yuchen Yang, Xuanxuan Ma, Hongbin Wu, 2024 [link] [pdf]
When information conflicts with obligations: The role of motivated cognition, with Ao Wang, Shaoda Wang, The Economic Journal, NBER Working Paper 30581, 2023 [link] [pdf]
College-major choice to college-then-major choice: Experimental evidence from Chinese college admissions reforms, with Liping Ma, Xin Li, Qiong Zhu, Economics of Education Review, EdWorkingPaper 22-694, 2023 [link] [pdf]
Impacts of village preschools on student enrollment and longer-term outcomes, International Journal of Educational Development, with Shuangye Chen, Yanlin Liu, Jin Yang, Yuchen Yang, 2023 [link] [pdf]
How college-student academic undermatch affects students: Quasi-experimental evidence on multifaceted student outcomes, Social Science Research, with Xin Li, Xiaogang Wu, 2023 [link] [pdf]
The effect of an information intervention on the career commitment of medical students: Evidence from a randomized experiment, Frontiers in Medicine, with Chunqing Li, Chen Yu, Hongbin Wu, 2023 [link] [pdf]
Still want to be a doctor? Medical student dropout in the era of COVID-19, with Muxin Zhai, Li Feng, A'na Xie, Weiming Wang, Hongbin Wu, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2022 [link] [pdf]
More money on learning, less learning loss? The Learning Curve at Urban Institute (internally reviewed), 2022 [link] [pdf]
Global pathways: New evidence on the international graduate school choice of Chinese outbound students, with Suhong Yang, Dean He, Higher Education, 2022 [link] [pdf]
Prosocial modeling matters, Annals of Medicine (authorship not randomized), with Dan Wang, Hongbin Wu, 2022 [link] [pdf]
Centralization vs. decentralization: The financing of public primary education in China, with Wei Ha, Dongyang Chen, Recent Advancements in Education Finance and Policy (eds. Thomas Downes, Kieran Killeen), 2022 [link] [pdf]
Heterogeneous major preferences for extrinsic incentives: The effects of wage information on the gender gap in STEM major choice, with Yanqing Ding, Wei Li, Xin Li,Yinduo Wu, Jin Yang, Research in Higher Education, EdWorkingPaper 21-395, 2021 [link] [pdf]
The elite exclusion: Stratified access and production during the Chinese higher education expansion, with Yanqing Ding, Yinduo Wu, Jin Yang, Higher Education, 2021 [link] [pdf]
Expanding online education for future doctors on a national scale, with Li Li, Hongbin Wu, A'na Xie, Cheng Liu, Weiming Wang, BMC Medical Education (authorship not randomized), 2021 [link] [pdf]
Traditional dietary habits and interprovincial migration in college choice, with Le Kang, Yanqing Ding, ECNU Review of Education, 2020 [link] [pdf]
Intergovernmental transfer with heterogeneous accountabilities: The effects of the 2006 Chinese Education Finance Reform, with Yanqing Ding, Fengming Lu, Economics of Educaiton Review, 2020 [link] [pdf]

Publications in Chinese

Information RCT on college major choice, with Qiuxiang Wu, Boyang Li, Exploring Education Development 教育发展研究, 2024.
Impacts of Early Childhood Education Policy on Fertility, with Li Huang, Ling Li, Exploring Education Development 教育发展研究, 2024.
Mismatch between college-majors and occupations: Results based on Shift-Share IV, with Suhong Yang, Peking University Education Review 北京大学教育评论, 2023.
Students' academic performance of publicly-funded pre-service teacher programs, with Xinliang Zhang, Yan Shi, Qi Zheng, Na Wang, Journal of Educational Studies 教育学报, 2023. [pdf]
Health insurance RCT with college students, with Menghan Shen, Xiangrui Zheng., Insurance Studies 保险研究, 2022. [pdf]
Medical school advising, with Yuchen Yang et al., Chinese Journal of Medical Education 中华医学教育杂志, 2022.
STEM major restrictions, with Shangcong Bu, Liping Ma, China Higher Education Research 中国高教研究, 2022. [pdf]
COVID and medical student attrition, with Xuanxuan Ma et al., Fudan Education Forum 复旦教育论坛, 2021. [pdf]
Impacts of academic mismatch on college success, with Qiongqiong Wang et al., China Economics of Education Review 教育经济评论, 2021. [pdf]
College and economic development: Evidence from new college campuses, with Wei Ha, Dongyang Chen, Peking University Education Review 北京大学教育评论, 2021. [pdf]
The impact of informational interventions on college-major choice: Evidence from a large-scale randomized experiment, with Lizhen Du et al., China Economic Quarterly 经济学季刊, 2021. [pdf]
The impacts of college admissions reforms,'' with Liping Ma et al., China Higher Education Research 中国高教研究, 2021. [pdf]
Retaking college entrance exam: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design, with Yan Zhang et al., Global Education 全球教育展望, 2019. [pdf]
Who benefits from college expansion in China? Part 2, with Yanqing Ding, Yinduo Wu, Jin Yang, Journal of National Academy of Education Administration 国家教育行政学院学报, 2019. [pdf]
Who benefits from college expansion in China? Part 1, with Yanqing Ding, Yinduo Wu, Jin Yang, Exploring Education Development 教育发展研究, 2019. [pdf]
Undermatched college choice among low-income students, with Si Chen et al., China Economics of Education Review 教育经济评论, 2018. [pdf]
Gaokao and education investment: Public high school performance pay under accountability, with Yinduo Wu, Jin Yang, Education & Economy 教育与经济, 2017. [pdf]
Why have some local governments closed more rural schools than others?, with Yanqing Ding, Shaoda Wang, China Economics of Education Review 教育经济评论, 2016. lead article [pdf]
Expanding Chinese higher education: Quality and social stratification, with Yanqing Ding, Chinese Journal of Sociology 社会, 2015. [pdf]
The causal effects of high school choice, with Jinling Chen, Yanqing Ding, Education Research Monthly Review 教育学术月刊, 2014. [pdf]
Local government incentives, fiscal constraint and education expenditure, in Lin et al. (eds) Tax Reform and Sustainable Development in China 中国税制改革与可持续发展, China Finance & Economics Press, 2013.
Parental political capital and children’s school choice: Evidence from China, World Economics Papers 世界经济文汇, 2012. [pdf]
Village schools: A symbol of the nation or deformation of the city?, RUC Education Journal 中国人民大学教育学刊, 2011. [pdf]

Spread science to help people change the world

Causal Machine Learning Series

RCT for Social Good Series

Improving College Choice for All Series

Causal Machine Learning Series

> Causal Machine Learning References [pdf]

This is a list of key methodological textbooks and papers on causal machine learning.
The current version includes four sections:

Causal Inference
Machine Learning
Causal Machine Learning
Coding

Updated: 12.31.2024

> 2022 - "Causal Inference Checklist"

hosted by Education Economics Lab of ECNU

> 2022/2023 New Year Talk - "Causal Inference: The Angrist Style"

> 2023/2024 New Year Talk - "Causal Machine Learning: An Introduction"

> 2024/2025 New Year Talk - "Causal Machine Learning: References and New Book Release"

RCT for Social Good Series

> 2022 - "Behavioral Economics in Early Childhood Education"

hosted by Center for Education Policy of SWU

> 2023 - "Behavioral Economics in Education Finance"

hosted by China Institute for Educational Finance Research

> 2024 - "Humans vs. Algorithms"

hosted by China Institute for Educational Finance Research

Improving College Choice for All Series

> 2022 - Gaokao Checklist

The seeds of life's confusion were planted before the College Entrance Exam - Apple Podcast by ETW Studio [link]
After 7 years of college advising, he said "it's hard to change students' behaviors" - Southern Weekend [link]
How does college application change a student's life? - People Magazine [link]

> 2023 - Gaokao Checklist

Providing free guidance on college application choices for 8 years, he shared four charts. - Southern Weekend [link]
The Opposite of Idealism - People Magazine [link]

> 2024 - Gaokao Checklist

Why do students always make mistakes in college choice? - Apple Podcast by Aunt Bear [link]
"We will all have bright future." An education experiment by a group of faculty and students from Peking University - Southern Weekend [link]
Using AI to run hundreds of millions of calculations to study 18 years of college application preferences, he says: "Creating a good application ultimately depends on the students themselves." - The Bund Education [link]
An economist and his experiments in education - Podcast by Vulnerable World [link]

Older Lectures

"The flowers bloom."

(Shangde School, Wen County, Gansu Province, 2009)

Six Years in My Life

Three books, five mentors, and 1,000,000 poor students guided my Ph.D. studies on #CollegeChoice, #BehavioralInsights, #CollegeAccess, #EconomicsOfEducation, #StudentSuccess, #Poverty, #EducationOpportunity, #DecisionMaking, #Inequality.